Climate Change, Poverty and Environmental Crisis in the Disaster Prone Areas of Pakistan | Global Warming | Effects Of Global Warming

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This study was commissioned to review the impact of climate change on Pakistan's rural disaster-prone communities in Badin (Sindh), Rajanpur (Punjab), and Khuzdar (Balochistan). The study's aim was to review community perceptions of the impact of climate change and recommend coping mechanisms for affected communities. The findings will support different organisations and institutions to initiate adaptation programmes. This report has helped Oxfam GB to initiate an adaptation programme in the coastal communities of Pakistan. The findings of the study are remarkably consistent with global, regional, and national climate change projections and alarming clearly show that environmental problems in the three districts are serious and growing, and climate change is exacerbating them. Poor and marginalised communities tend to be those most vulnerable to climate change and least able to cope with weather-related disasters because of lack of access to information and resources to reduce their risk.
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    2 Acknowledgements © Oxfam GB November 2009 This paper was written by Zehar Abbass. Oxfam GB acknowledges the assistance of  Javeria Afzal and John Magrath in its production. It is part of a series of papers written to inform public debate on development and humanitarian policy issues. The text may be used free of charge for the purposes of advocacy, campaigning, education, and research, provided that the source is acknowledged in full. The copyright holder requests that all such use be registered with them for impact assessment purposes. For copying in any other circumstances, or for re-use in other publications, or for translation or adaptation, permission must be secured and a fee may be charged. E-mail publish@oxfam.org.uk For further information on the issues raised in this paper go to www.oxfam.org.uk or write to: Oxfam GB Pakistan Programme Office House # 201, Street # 10, E-7, Islamabad - Pakistan The information in this publication is correct at the time of going to press. Oxfam is a registered charity in England and Wales (no 202918) and Scotland (SCO 039042). Oxfam GB is a member of Oxfam International.    3 Contents Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................5 1   Introduction............................................................................................................................8   1.1   Research Methodology.......................................................................................8   1.2   Structure of Report...........................................................................................10   2   Climate Change Science and Observations....................................................................11   2.1   Global Trends in Climate Change..................................................................11   2.2   Climate Change Trends and Observed Impacts in South Asia..................12   2.3   Research on Climate Change in Pakistan......................................................14   2.3.1   Emissions Scenarios.............................................................................14   2.3.2   A2 Scenario............................................................................................14   2.3.3   PRECIS Model.......................................................................................15   2.4   Coastal Areas of Badin.....................................................................................15   2.4.1   Past Trends............................................................................................15   2.4.2   GCISC Projections................................................................................16   2.4.3   Rise in Sea Level...................................................................................16   2.5   Flood-Prone Arid Areas in Rajanpur.............................................................17   2.5.1   Past Trends............................................................................................17   2.5.2   GCISC Projections................................................................................18   2.5.3   Research on Agriculture......................................................................18   2.6   Drought-Prone Areas of Khuzdar..................................................................19   2.6.1   Past Trends............................................................................................19   2.6.2   GCISC Projections................................................................................19   2.7   Discussion on Findings....................................................................................20  3   Impacts of Climate Change on Communities................................................................21   3.1   Coastal Areas of Badin.....................................................................................21   3.1.1   Physical Environment..........................................................................22   3.1.2   Biological Environment.......................................................................24   3.1.3   Socioeconomic Environment...............................................................25   3.2   Flood-Prone Areas of Rajanpur......................................................................27   3.2.1   Physical Environment..........................................................................28   3.2.2   Biological Environment.......................................................................29   3.2.3   Socioeconomic Environment...............................................................30   3.3   Arid Areas of Khuzdar.....................................................................................32   3.3.1   Physical Environment..........................................................................32   3.3.2   Biological Environment.......................................................................33   3.3.3   Socioeconomic Environment...............................................................34  4   Correlation between Scientific and Community-Level Data on Climate Change..36   4.1   Badin...................................................................................................................36   4.2   Rajanpur.............................................................................................................37   4.3   Khuzdar..............................................................................................................37   4.4   Conclusions........................................................................................................38     4 5. Recommended Adaptation Measures................................................................................39   5.1. Agriculture.............................................................................................................39   5.2. Water Resources Management............................................................................39   5.3. Rangeland Management.....................................................................................39   5.4. Fisheries..................................................................................................................40   5.5. Health and Hygiene..............................................................................................40   5.6. Disaster Risk Reduction.......................................................................................40  Annexure.....................................................................................................................................41  
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