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Commoditis Commoditis: Dily Fos: Thml ol wk, bt th will b ssol sot 19 Otob 2012 Fos: Ssolly, Novmb ss ik- i ltiity dmd i Chi, whih is st to lst til Fby. Fthmo, hydo-ltiity odtio is lso st to dli s wit
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Commoditis Commoditis: Dily Fos: Thml ol wk, bt th will b ssol sot 19 Otob 2012 Fos: Ssolly, Novmb ss ik- i ltiity dmd i Chi, whih is st to lst til Fby. Fthmo, hydo-ltiity odtio is lso st to dli s wit ohs, whih shold s ol dmd ik btw Novmb d Fby. This my ovid tmoy floo to is. With LE wk dwig to los, th mkts shold t to som smbl of omlity xt wk. Tht sid, howv, it s itstig to ot tht oly o hs lly s otibl dtio i tov o LE Slt ov th st wk, with th st of th bs mtls omlx sig volms mo o lss i li with th vg dily tov o LE Slt s so f this y. Sttgists Wlt d Wt, CF* Lo Wstgt* God, Stog dt ot of th US ystdy (Phildlhi Fd d ldig iditos) ld ios mtls low o dmd xttios of moty stimls. PG, silly ltim, slid littl hd ft ots tht som of Soth fi s stikig gold mis hd om to gmt with mgmt. Cd oil ws o th bk foot ystdy, til US dt flow i th ltt t of th dy. Ulik ios mtls, oil mkts, oid with high US ivtoy lvls d dmd dsttio, w ogd by iditios of fimig US oomy. WTI ovd its li losss, dig th dy lgly hgd, t $92.10/bbl. Rots of shtdow of th Kysto Pili (whih tks Cdi d ito th US) lt fth sot to WTI is. Bt s ovy fom th li losss ws mo mtd, lvig th bhmk dow 80/bbl fo th dy, to los t $112.42/bbl. Commodity i dt (18 Otob 2012) Bs mtls LE 3-moth O Clos High Low Dily hg Chg (%) Csh Sttl Chg i sh sttl Csh - 3m lmiim 1,990 2,015 2,015 1, % 1, Co 8,206 8,220 8,260 8, % 8, Ld 2,151 2,157 2,177 2, % 2, Nikl 17,179 17,320 17,350 17, % 17, Ti 21,500 21,775 21,800 21, % 21, Zi 1,926 1,921 1,938 1, % 1, Egy O Clos High Low dy/dy Chg (%) ICE Bt % NYEX WTI % ICE Gsoil , % PI2 Q4' % Fix P Fix High bid Low off Closig bid Chg (d/d) EFP's Gold 1, , , , , /1.2 Silv /3.0 Pltim 1, , , , , /3.5 Plldim /1.0 Sos: Stdd Bk; LE; BBG Pls f to th dislim t th d of this domt. Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 Fos: Eltiity odtio thml ol wk bt ssol sot witig i th wigs Th ltst ltiity odtio fom Chi fo Stmb, i otst to th idstil odtio d til sls dt, otis to oit to slggish oomi gowth. Eltiity odtio gw oly 1.2% y/y i Stmb, dow fom 10% y/y i Stmb lst y (Fig 1). Fo th fist i moths of 2012, ltiity odtio ws 3.2% y/y, omd to gowth t of 11.2% dig th sm iod i 2011, d 17.4% i I 2009, th gowth t dig th fist i moths of th y ws 1.4%. Bsids wk ltiity odtio iditig glly idit wk dmd gowth fo ommoditis, low ltiity odtio gowth lso oits to fth slggish thml ol dmd gowth. Fig 1: Chi totl ltiity odtio kwh (b) b F y Sis2 l g S t O v o N D Th it fo thml ol dmd gowth still sms wk th wht th hdli dt wold sggst. W stimt thml ol ots tly 57% fll, i li with th vg lvl ov th st th ys. Bt stok lvls t ostl ow sttios otdly ow stds t 26 dys, fom 20 dys of stok moth go. Fthmo, dsit th vy modst gowth t i ovll ltiity odtio i th oty, ltiity odd fom thml ol otis to dli. I gst, ltiity odtio fom thml ol ws dow 7.2% y/y. Fo th fist ight moths of th y ltiity odtio fom thml ol ws I 2011 ltiity odtio gowth ws 13.8% y/y dig th fist 8 moths d i 2010 th y/y gowth fo th sm iod ws 19.4%. O of th sos fo th dli i th s of thml i ltiity odtio is tht hydo ltiity otis to is i its sh of totl odtio. I gst, hydo ltiity ostittd 21.6% of totl ltiity odtio fom 15% y go. W v b tgtig $80/mt fo thml ol by is fo som tim (s Commoditis Dily dtd 28 gst). PI4 fo dlivy i Otob losd ystdy t $84.00 (dow fom jst bov $90/mt i mid-gst). Th PI2 fot-moth ott losd t $86.65 (dow fom $95/mt i mid gst). Whil w bliv th fdmtls fo th thml ol mkt mis wk d is old still mov low, d i movmts Sos: CEIN; Stdd Bk Rsh Fig 2: Chi ltiity odtio fom thml ol kwh (b) b F y Sos: CEIN;; Stdd Bk Rsh high is likly to fd, w lso bliv dowsid is bomig omssd. Ssolly, Novmb ss ik- i ltiity dmd i Chi, whih is st to lst til Fby. Fthmo, hydo-ltiity odtio is lso st to dli s wit ohs, whih shold s th dmd fo ol ik btw Novmb d Fby. This my ovid tmoy floo to is Sis2 l g S t O v o N By Wlt d Wt D Bs mtls With LE wk dwig to los, th bs mtls mkts shold t to som smbl of omlity xt wk. Tht sid, howv, it s itstig to ot tht oly o hs lly s otibl dtio i tov o LE Slt ov th st wk, with th st of th bs mtls omlx sig volms mo o lss i li with th vg dily tov o LE Slt s so f this y. Th bs mtls omlx hs om d ss this moig, followig gl stgthig i th doll, wk Eo qity mkts d oo Chis FDI fig (-6.8% y/y i Stmb omd to xttios of -3.5%). omt by dvis to th PBOC, sggstig th will ot b big stimls d tht lol govmt ls will ot mtilis qikly, owig to th d fo tl govmt fdig, lso s to hv wighd o stimt. W do ot 2 Commoditis Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 Bs mtls (ot.) bliv tht mjo stimls ogmm is likly i th ft, tilly giv t stbilistio i tms of oomi dt; howv, som lmts of th mkt still hbo hos tht o will mg. Co hs diftd bk towds $8,100 dig Fidy moig, omig d fily sstid sllig ss. Whil LE ivtois showd oth is i o-wt stoks, with 1,200 mt tig Nw Ols d 775 mt tig Bs, hdli stoks fll t 4,250 mt followig dws of viosly lld mtil t St Lois (-875 mt) d Bs (-4,875 mt). whil SHFE ivtois isd gi this wk, limbig 15,196 mt to 196,710 mt. Th is oms mid lklst hysil mkt t th momt with most of th iflow tig domsti SHFE whoss th th th bodd zo, whih otd fo oly od 500 mt of th is. Ctly, domsti hysil o is tdig t 80 CNY disot to th Novmb SHFE ott, whil th imot loss fo o is ig t $223/mt lbit omd to loss of $256/mt ystdy. Ld hs bod bk littl followig wk stt to th dy. lthogh th mtl sw 5,400 mt jm i lld wts i Dtoit, giv th log xit q d t oomi it, it sms mo likly th lltios ltd to whosig-ty tivity th th d to sdd ik- i US dmd. By Lo Wstgt Pios mtls Stog dt ot of th US ystdy (Phildlhi Fd d ldig iditos) ld ios mtls low o dmd xttios of moty stimls. PG, silly ltim, slid littl hd ft ots tht som of Soth fi s stikig gold mis hd om to gmt with mgmt. Ptiits hs od tht this might -mt soltio of th ogoig stik t mlts. lso ystdy, mlts lsd ot syig tht it wold dly th dismissl oss of illglly stikig woks (bt wold ot istt thm) i th hos tht this might filitt li smtio of wg gotitios. s otd li this wk, th sltiv mkt is vy log ltim, whih dos mk th mtl im didt fo fth sll-off (s Fts mkt d ETF ositioig dtd 15 Otob). Nt sltiv lgth s tg of o itst hs hd oth YTD high lst wk 64.1% omd to fiv-y vg of 50.7%. soltio of th mlts dist old b th tlyst fo sh sll-off. Howv, whil Goldfilds woks hv td to wok, glogold d Hmoy woks hv ot. o tit is tht th hs b ot fth dts o th ios d/o woks sos to mlts s ot. Gold sot is t $1,730 d $1,727. Rsist is $1,745 d $1,756. Silv sot is t $32.25 d $32.16, sist is t $32.87 d $ Pltim sot is t $1,624 d $1,616, sist is t $1,658 d $1,682. Plldim sot is t $636 d sist t $650. By God Egy Cd oil ws o th bk foot ystdy, til US dt flow i th ltt t of th dy. Ulik ios mtls, oil mkts, oid with high US ivtoy lvls d dmd dsttio, w ogd by iditios of fimig US oomy (Phildlhi Fd d ldig idito idx). This sw WTI ov its li losss, dig th dy lgly hgd, t $92.10/bbl. Rots of shtdow of th Kysto Pili (whih tks Cdi d ito th US) lt fth sot to WTI is. Bt s ovy fom th li losss ws mo mtd, lvig th bhmk dow 80/bbl fo th dy, to los t $112.42/bbl. Th bs of y tttio-gbbig hdlis ot of th iddl Est this wk (i til, o I d Syi) hs wkd th goolitil isk mim tht Bt is iig i. This is otbl i th owig of th WTI-Bt sd, whih ft hig od los of $23.95/bbl o ody, dd ystdy $3.63/bbl low t $20.32/bbl. ost of this owig hs b s slt of Bt wkss (fllig $3.63/bbl si ody, whil WTI hs gid modst 25/bbl). sig of os ov th Tkish-Syi oflit d th ottil fo isd US d dmd, old s fth owig of th WTI-Bt sd ov th tm (s Commoditis Dily dtd 12 Otob). Howv, w do fl tht iddl Est tsios mi sigifit ogh to k th sd fom losig too dmtilly. Big y mjo ositiv dvlomts i Syi d/o o I, w do t fl tht th mim old mov sstibly blow th.$15/bbl low of this y ov th xt qt. US hom sls figs ot lt tody, if btt th xttios o showig imovmt, old omt simil tio s ystdy s US dt. By God Commoditis 3 Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 Bs mtls Dily LE Stok ovmt (mt) tl Tody Ystdy I Ot O dy hg YTD hg (mt) Clld wts (mt) Clld wts (%) Cott tov lmiim 5,048,450 5,058,250 3,000 12,800-9,800 78,050 1,758, ,643 Co 225, ,450 2,150 1, ,750 44, ,776 Ld 295, , ,975-1,975-57, , ,577 Nikl 127, , ,104 12, ,968 Ti 11,580 11, , ,334 Zi 1,116,625 1,059,650 58,675 1,700 56, , , ,883 Shghi 3-moth fowd is COEX tiv moth ft is tl O Lst 1d Chg O Clos Chg Chg (%) lmiim 15,560 15,545 5 li D' Co 59,150 58, C D' % Zi 15,195 15, ZR mtl is lmiim Co Ld Nikl Ti Zi ZR/USD fix Csh 17,053 71,017 18, , ,570 16, moth 17,661 72,048 18, , ,858 16, Egy Egy fts iig Pi Chg Pi Chg Pi Chg Pi Chg Pi Chg 1 moth 2 moth 3 moth 6 moth 1 y Sig Gsoil ($/bbbl) Gsoil 0.1% Rdm ($/mt) NWE CIF jt ($/mt) 1, , , , , Sigo Ko ($/bbl) % Rdm bgs ($/mt) % Fl Oil FOB ($/mt) Sig FO180 Cgo ($/mt) Thml ol Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Cl 13 Cl 14 PI2 (CIF R) PI4 (FOB RBCT) Pios mtls Fowds (%) 1 moth 2 moths 3 moths 6 moths 12 moths Gold Silv USD Libo Thil Iditos 30-dy RSI 10-dy 20-dy 100-dy 200-dy Sot Rsist Gold , , , , , , Silv Pltim , , , , , , Plldim tiv oth Ft COEX GLD COEX SLV NYEX PL NYEX PLT DGCX GLD TOCO GLD CBOT GLD D'12 D'12 '13 '13 D'12 g'13 D'12 Sttlmt 1, , , , , O Itst 466, ,240 20,079 65,477 1, , Chg i O Itst 4, ,005 0 Sos: Stdd Bk; LE; Bloombg 4 Commoditis Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 Blks Ptg hg Ltst Pi Stl Physil 1-dy 1-wk 1-moth 3-moth 6-moth 1-y Tkish S 80:20 (Iskid CFR) $/t % 2.04% -4.12% -6.20% % - Chi Tgsh Stl Billt $/t % -3.93% 0.78% -6.38% % % Chi HRC xot (Shghi FOB) $/t % 0.00% 0.00% % % % Noth Eo HRC domsti (x-woks) $/t % -1.08% -5.15% -9.80% - - Noth mi HRC domsti (idwst FOB) $/t % -1.89% % -2.92% % % Stl Fts LE Billt Csh $/t % -0.36% 2.39% % % % LE Billt Fts (1-mth) $/t % -0.44% 0.88% % % % LE Stl Billt Stoks hg -1, Shghi Rb Fts (1-mth) $/t % -2.44% 4.30% -1.45% % -9.10% Shghi Rb Fts O-Wt Stoks hg Io o Chi Io O Fis (62% F; CFR Tiji) $/t % 0.87% 5.48% -8.04% % % Chi Io O Fis (58% F; CFR Tiji) $/t % 0.57% 5.82% % % % SGX sicl IO Sws 62% F $/t (1-mth) % 2.14% 11.69% % % % Chi Io O Ivtoy (10,000 tos) % -4.62% -6.01% -7.84% -7.88% -3.62% Cokig ol Pmim Hd Cokig Col (Qld FOB) $/t % 0.00% -7.32% % % - Csiz fight Tbo Bzil-Bil Chi (C3) % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % Pilb stli-qigdo Chi (C5) % 0.00% 28.57% 27.66% 12.50% % Sldh Soth fi-bil Chi % 4.01% 22.44% 22.92% 4.71% % Tbo Bzil to Rottdm Eo % -2.05% 28.19% 20.89% 15.76% % Sldh Soth fi-rottdm Eo % 10.20% 32.79% 28.57% 11.72% % Sos: Stdd Bk; LE; Bloombg Commoditis 5 Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 Disloss Ctifitio Th lyst(s) who d this sh ot (dotd by stisk*) hby tifis(y) tht: (i) ll of th viws d oiios xssd i this sh ot tly flt th sh lyst's(s') sol viws bot th sbjt ivstmt(s) d iss(s) d (ii) o t of th lyst s(s ) omstio ws, is o will b ditly o iditly ltd to th sifi ommdtios o viws xssd by th lyst(s) i this sh ot. Coflit of Itst It is th oliy of Th Stdd Bk Go Limitd d its woldwid ffilits d sbsidiis (togth th Stdd Bk Go ) tht sh lysts my ot b ivolvd i tivitis i wy tht sggsts tht h o sh is stig th itsts of y mmb of th Stdd Bk Go o its lits if this is sobly likly to to b iosistt with ovidig iddt ivstmt sh. I dditio sh lysts otig lis sttd so s to void y oflit of itsts. Fo xml, sh lysts ot b sbjt to th svisio o otol of yo i th Stdd Bk Go s ivstmt bkig o sls d tdig dtmts. Howv, sh sls d tdig dtmts my td, s iil, o th bsis of th sh lyst s blishd sh. Thfo, th oity itsts of thos sls d tdig dtmts my oflit with yo itsts. Lgl Etitis To U. S. Rsidts Stdd Nw Yok Sitis I. is gistd with th Sitis d Exhg Commissio s bok-dl d is lso mmb of th FINR d SIPC. Stdd mis, I is gistd s ommodity tdig dviso d ommodity ool oto with th CFTC d is lso mmb of th NF. Both ffilits of Stdd Bk Pl d Stdd Bk of Soth fi. Stdd Nw Yok Sitis, I is sosibl fo th dissmitio of this sh ot i th Uitd Stts. y iit of this sh i th Uitd Stts wishig to fft tstio i y sity mtiod hi shold do so by ottig Stdd Nw Yok Sitis, I. To Soth fi Rsidts Th Stdd Bk of Soth fi Limitd (Rg.No.1962/000738/06) is gltd by th Soth fi Rsv Bk d is thoisd Fiil Svis Povid. To U.K. Rsidts Stdd Bk Pl is thoisd d gltd by th Fiil Svis thoity (gist mb ) d is ffilit of Stdd Bk of Soth fi. Th ifomtio otid hi dos ot ly to, d shold ot b lid o by, til stoms. To Tky Rsidts Stdd Ul kl Dgl.S. d Stdd Ul Potfoy Yotimi.S. gltd by th Tkish Citl kts Bod ( CB ). Ud th CB s lgisltio, th ifomtio, ommts d ommdtios otid i this ot fll otsid of th dfiitio of ivstmt dvisoy svis. Ivstmt dvisoy svis ovidd d ivstmt dvisoy gmt btw lit d bokg hos, otfolio mgmt omy, bk tht dos ot t dosits o oth itl mkts ofssiols. Th ommts d ommdtios otid i this ot bsd o th sol oiios of th thos. Ths oiios might ot b oit fo yo fiil sittio d isk d t fs. Fo tht so, ivstmt disios tht ly solly o th ifomtio otid i this sttio might ot mt yo xttios. Yo shold y ssy dismt, tttio d i od ot to xi losss. To Sigo Rsidts Sigo iits shold ott Sigo fiil dvis fo y mtts isig fom this sh ot. Imott Rgiol Disloss To th xtt this is ot thod i whol o i t by o-u.s. lyst d is md vilbl i th U.S., th followig imott disloss gdig y o-u.s. lyst otibtos: Th o-u.s. sh lysts (dotd by stisk*) ot gistd/qlifid s sh lysts with FINR. Th o-u.s. sh lysts (dotd by stisk*) my ot b ssoitd sos of Stdd Nw Yok Sitis I. d thfo my ot b sbjt to th NSD Rl 2711 d NYSE Rl 472 stitios o ommitios with sbjt omy, bli s d tdig sitis hld by sh lyst ot. Eh lyst (dotd by stisk*) is No-U.S. lyst. Th lyst is sh lyst mloyd by Th Stdd Bk Go Limitd.. Gl Fo th oss of this ot Stdd CIB fs to thos divisios of Stdd Bk Go Limitd who mily ivolvd i oot d ivstmt bkig bsiss d dos ot f xlsivly to y til titis withi Stdd Bk Go. This sh ot is bsd o ifomtio fom sos tht Stdd CIB blivs to b libl. Whilst vy hs b tk i ig this domt, o sh lyst o mmb of Stdd CIB givs y sttio, wty o dtkig d ts o sosibility o libility s to th y o omltss of th ifomtio st ot i this domt (xt with st to y disloss ltiv to mmbs of Stdd CIB d th sh lyst s ivolvmt with y iss fd to bov). ll viws, oiios d stimts otid i this domt my b hgd ft blitio t y tim withot oti. Pst fom is ot iditiv of ft slts. Th ivstmts d sttgis disssd h my ot b sitbl fo ll ivstos o y til lss of ivstos; if yo hv y dobts yo shold oslt yo ivstmt dviso. Th ivstmts disssd my fltt i i o vl. Chgs i ts of xhg my hv dvs fft o th vl of ivstmts. This mtil is ot itdd s off o soliittio fo th hs o sl of y fiil istmt. mbs of Stdd CIB my t s lmt gt, dviso o ld, mk mkt i, o my hv b mg o o-mg of, th most t bli offig i st of y ivstmts o isss fd i this ot. mbs of Stdd CIB d/o thi stiv ditos d mloys my ow th ivstmts of y of th isss 6 Commoditis Commoditis Dily 19 Otob 2012 disssd hi d my sll thm to o by thm fom stoms o iil bsis. This ot is itdd solly fo lits d ostiv lits of mmbs of Stdd CIB d is ot itdd fo, d my ot b lid o by, til stoms o sos to whom this ot my ot b ovidd by lw. This ot is fo ifomtio oss oly d my ot b odd o distibtd to y oth so withot th io ost of mmb of Stdd CIB. Uthoisd s o dislos of this domt is stitly ohibitd. By tig this domt, yo g to b bod by th fogoig limittios. Coyight 2012 Stdd Bk Go Limitd. ll ights svd. G/CO/00112 **NOT INVESTENT RESERCH This domt is itdd s th thos' viw d s sh dos ot st th viws of Stdd Bk Go. Pls ot tht o o mo of th thos tht d this ot sit o sls d tdig dsk of th Stdd Bk Go. Noti to US Rsidts: This is ot Rsh Rot s tht tm is st ot i Rgltio C of th Sitis d Exhg Commissio ls. s sh it might ot hv b d i od with ls dsigd to omot iddt ivstmt sh. Noti to EU d UK Rsidts: This domt is ot ivstmt sh. It is thfo ostitts mktig ommitio s thos tms dfid by th UK FS Hdbook, s it hs ot b d i od with th EU lgl qimts dsigd to omot th idd of ivstmt sh. Whilst vy hs b tk i ig this domt, o mmb of th Stdd Bk Go givs y sttio, wty o dtkig d ts o sosibility o libility s to th y o omltss of th ifomtio st ot i this domt. ll viws, oiios d stimts otid i this domt my b hgd ft blitio t y tim withot oti. Pst fom is ot iditiv of ft slts. Th ivstmts d sttgis disssd h my ot b sitbl fo ll ivstos o y til lss of ivstos; if yo hv y dobts yo shold oslt yo ivstmt dviso. Th ivstmts disssd my fltt i i o vl. Chgs i ts of xhg my hv dvs fft o th vl of ivstmts. This mtil is ot itdd s off o soliittio fo th hs o sl of y fiil istmt. mbs of Stdd Bk Go my t s lmt gt, dviso o ld, mk mkt i, o my hv b mg o o mg of, th most t bli offig i st of y ivstmts o isss fd i this ot. mbs of th Stdd Bk Go d/o thi stiv ditos d mloys my ow th ivstmts of y of th isss disssd hi d my sll thm to o by thm fom stoms o iil bsis. This ot is itdd solly fo lits d ostiv lits of mmbs of th Stdd Bk Go d is ot itdd fo, d my ot b lid o by, til stoms o sos to whom this ot my ot b ovidd by lw. This ot is fo ifomtio oss oly d my ot b odd o distibtd to y oth so withot th io ost of mmb of th Stdd Bk Go. Uthoisd s o dislos of this domt is stitly ohibitd. By tig this domt, yo g to b bod by th fogoig limittios. Tlho lls my b odd fo qlity d gltoy oss. Coyight 2008 Stdd Bk Go. ll ights svd. Stdd Bk Pl, 20 Gshm Stt, Lodo EC2V 7E. To Soth fi Rsidts Th Stdd Bk of Soth fi Limitd (Rg.No.1962/000738/06) is gltd by th Soth fi Rsv Bk d is thoisd Fiil Svis Povid. Commoditis 7
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