Pre-Crisis Market Analysis: Credit, drinking water and wheat flour market systems in Tilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains, Northern Iraq

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Mosul, Iraq
  Pre-Crisis Market Analysis Credit, Drinking Water and Wheat Flour Market Systems Tilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains, Northern Iraq Informing emergency response and preparedness ahead of the counter-offensive to recapture Mosul from ISIS Executive Summary  Acknowledgements This executive summary and the full report (available on the following link: were written and compiled by Emmeline Saint, humanitarian consultant, with invaluable insight and feedback from Corrie Sissons (Oxfam), Alexandre Gachoud (Oxfam), Emily Sloane (IRC), Georgina Sword-Daniels (IRC), Rachel Rigby (Tearfund), Jenny Lamb (Oxfam), Rachel Sider (Oxfam) and Kwok Lee (Oxfam).We are very grateful for the commitment and dedication of the team members who conducted this study: Qahreen Ahmed (CRS), Rachel Rigby (Tearfund), Yahya Hussein (Oxfam), Hawree Raoof (Oxfam), Honar Jammel Hassan (ACF), Muhsin Ali Rashow (ACF), Alan Mostafa (IRC), Harman Nasir (IRC), Karveen Mohammed (DRC), Jiya Adnan Ali (Big Heart), Nour Ahmad (IOM) , Dilkosh Abdulaziz (WVI), Wassan Ali (Relief International), Ihsan Habash Abboosh (REACH) and Ahmed Husain (Save the Children). Disclaimer The scenarios which informed the data collection and subsequent analysis for this report reflect a general expectation – based on recent and current trends in Iraq – that internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing Mosul city and the surrounding areas will encounter three major obstacles in displacement: 1) navigating the frontline and ongoing violence; 2) restrictions on movement and access to safety and services when fleeing conflict; and 3) discrimination and stigmatization in displacement. These trends are referenced throughout the analysis and have informed programmatic recommendations in potential IDP-hosting communities of the Ninewa Plains. These trends are also a significant shift in terms of barriers and market access issues facing those fleeing Mosul in comparison with the large displacement in June 2014. The recommendations offered in this report take into account these identified barriers facing IDPs as well as the anticipated restricted humanitarian space in reaching them, resulting from the high levels of insecurity and predicted ongoing conflict in the area. Nevertheless, in order to ensure that assistance reaches greater numbers of IDPs, steadfast action must be taken by local authorities and security forces to: ã Guarantee the safety of vulnerable groups fleeing violence, including through the establishment and communication of safe routes away from conflict areas, minimizing their proximity to conflict and planned in advance of military operations. Civilian safety must remain central;ã Adhere to transparent, consistent and dignified security screening procedures. These procedures should not discriminate on the basis of ethnicity, gender or religion; should work to preserve family unity; and should be made known and remain publicly available. Furthermore, a process of appeal against denied entry should be established and should be easily accessible.In addition, action must be taken by the government and the humanitarian community to: ã Negotiate access to safety and services in areas of displacement across the Ninewa Plains to ensure that all civilians can gain access to adequate and appropriate assistance, including functioning markets;ã Actively reduce tension and institute policies and programmes that promote social cohesion and address stigmatization of, and open hostility towards, particular identity groups. 2PRE-CRISIS MARKET ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Credit, Drinking Water and Wheat Flour Market SystemsTilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains, Northern Iraq 1000 SCALE OF MILES IRAQ SYRIAIRANTURKEY NinewaKurdistan NinewaPlains  Baghdad KirkukErbilMosul  Executive summary Background and rationale Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, was captured by ISIS in June 2014 and still remains under their control. However, the Iraqi army has vowed to recapture Mosul, and the speculation is that a counter-offensive is imminent. All scenarios for this military operation have dramatic humanitarian implications. According to some estimates, between 500,000 and 1.5 million civilians could flee into either the surrounding areas or into ISIS-controlled parts of Syria. A large influx of new internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing towards the Ninewa plains would have an impact on markets in the area; those markets need to be understood in order to meet humanitarian needs and to inform programming in an appropriate and effective way, while doing no harm. In February 2016, Oxfam and the International Rescue Committee (IRC) co-facilitated a Pre-Crisis Market Analysis (PCMA) exercise to inform preparedness and emergency response interventions by understanding market systems that are critical to supporting the basic needs and livelihoods recovery needs of populations affected by displacement in the Ninewa plains.PCMA is an approach to conducting market analysis prior to emergencies in order to understand existing levels of functionality and to anticipate how markets will respond after a shock occurs. It allows humanitarian agencies to map the functionality of current market systems and assess their capacity to cover the needs of affected people in an emergency. This is key to feeding into preparedness and contingency plans by informing the design of appropriate emergency response interventions, as well as to recommending mitigation measures to be implemented before the shock occurs. Recommendations for both emergency and preparedness interventions may be for direct responses targeting affected populations, but also for indirect responses aimed at supporting market actors so that they are able to effectively provide for the needs of the population, with minimal external assistance. Indirect responses can also include advocacy activities to target elements of the market environment in order to contribute to a better functioning of the market system.With the ongoing nature of the crisis and the current increase in the use of cash transfers in humanitarian programming in Iraq, there is a critical need to systematize market analysis as a crucial step in the response design phase. All humanitarian interventions have an impact on markets, and understanding market dynamics is fundamental to (1) doing no harm, (2) increasing efficiency and effectiveness and (3) strengthening both emergency response and livelihoods promotion interventions. Market analysis can be carried out at all stages of the programme cycle to inform preparedness, response, monitoring, early recovery and coordination efforts. Methodology This PCMA exercise adapted the Emergency Market Mapping and Analysis (EMMA) methodology for the pre-crisis context in order to map and analyse specific critical market systems. Market systems are composed of networks of market actors (the market chain), whose dynamics are influenced by institutions, norms and trends (the market environment) and supported by a range of key infrastructures, inputs and market support services.The assessment team was composed of 15 participants and a technical support team of five, from 12 different agencies, including local NGOs and INGOs. Participants attended a week-long workshop in Erbil that covered the PCMA approach, the 10 steps of EMMA and other relevant topics in market analysis, before beginning field research. The study analysed how selected market systems are performing in the current situation and aimed to forecast the impacts of the shock scenario in the target areas. Target area and population, scenario and critical market systems Definition of the scenario, target areas, target population and critical market systems was informed by consultations with key humanitarian actors and members of the relevant clusters. The scenario selected for this exercise was the massive displacement of people expected as a result of a future counter-offensive by the Iraqi army and coalition forces to reclaim Mosul. This scenario entailed some critical unknowns, such as the location and number of people who would flee the city, as well as the time when the shock would occur. The study covered Tilkaif and Shikhan districts of the Ninewa plains; these districts were selected because they are likely to see a large influx of IDPs following the shock. 3PRE-CRISIS MARKET ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Credit, Drinking Water and Wheat Flour Market SystemsTilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains, Northern Iraq  4PRE-CRISIS MARKET ANALYSIS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Credit, Drinking Water and Wheat Flour Market SystemsTilkaif and Shikhan districts, Ninewa Plains, Northern Iraq The target population for this study was composed of displacement-affected households in Tilkaif and Shikhan districts, including both people affected by the current displacement and those affected by the forecast new wave. Within this target population, three target groups were identified: current IDPs (those displaced by the 2014 events who are currently living in camps and in non-camp locations across the districts); host households; and potential new IDPs who would be displaced into the area should the shock occur. Syrian refugees are not present in large numbers in these two districts; for this reason, they were not included as a target group for the study.Based on prior consultations with members of the Food Security, WASH and Emergency Livelihoods and Social Cohesion clusters, as well as a review of secondary information and validation from the assessment participants, the following critical market systems were selected for analysis: wheat flour, drinking water and chicken rearing. However, the chicken rearing market was changed to the credit market for livelihoods in the early stages of fieldwork, based on information collected first-hand, in order to better address the initial objective of analysing market systems that would support the displacement-affected population in terms of emergency livelihoods.For all three market systems, the key analytical questions focused on three main aspects:a. The conditions and constraints for the target groups to access market systems, both in the current situation and in the event of a Mosul displacement;b. The capacity of market systems to meet the needs of the target groups, in both current and emergency-affected situations; andc. The most appropriate interventions to improve preparedness, feed into future planning efforts and contribute to the design of emergency interventions as a response to the forecast Mosul displacement.For the study, the estimated number of IDPs moving from Mosul to the two areas of coverage (Tilkaif and Shikhan districts) was assumed to be in the range of 200,000 to 700,000 individuals. Geographical coverage of the PCMA Dohuk 27 interviews including ã  3 bottled water suppliers ã  General company forGrain Trade ã  Directorate of WheatFlour Distribution ã  3 formal credit suppliers ã  2 wheat flour millersand 2 traders Shikhan 22 interviews including ã  1 formal creditprovider ã  1 bank director ã  Directorate ofAgriculture under KRG Mahad 9 interviews including ã  3 water bottle vendors ã  2 wheat flour traders ã  1 FGD with IDP (noncamp setting, wheatflour) Al Qosh 11 interviews including ã  Mayor ã  4 informal creditproviders ã  Directorate ofAgriculture coveringNinewa Chira 6 interviews including ã  1 IDP focal point ã  1 Mukhtar Bozan 9 interviews including ã  Mayor ã  3 IDP HH (water) ã  Mokhtar Kalakchi 12 interviews including ã  1 IDP focal point ã  2 wheat flour traders ã  2 FGD with IDP (wheat flour) Garmawa Shekhan 1 interviews including ã  Camp Manager
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