Pushed Out: Housing Displacement in an Unaffordable Region (New York City) | Subsidy

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Nearly One Million People in the Region Are Threatened by Displacement. By the Regional Plan Association - March, 2017
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  A Report of the Fourth Regional PlanMarch 2017 Pushed Out Housing Displacement in an Unaffordable Region  This paper belongs in a series of reports that lay the groundwork for the policy recommendations of the fourth regional plan,  A Region Transformed  . The full plan will appear this fall. Acknowledgments Major support from The Ford FoundationThe JPB FoundationThe Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Grants and donations from Albert W. & Katharine E. Merck Charitable FundAnonymousFairfield County Community FoundationFund for the Environment and Urban Life/Oram FoundationJM Kaplan FundLincoln Institute of Land PolicyNew York Community TrustRauch FoundationRockefeller FoundationSiemens And additional support from Rohit AggarwalaPeter BienstockBrooklyn Greenway InitiativeDoris Duke Charitable FoundationEmigrant BankFriends of Hudson River ParkFund for New JerseyGarfield FoundationGreater Jamaica Development CorporationTown of HackettstownLaurance S. Rockefeller FundLeen FoundationLily Auchincloss FoundationNational Park ServiceNew Jersey Board of Public UtilitiesNew Jersey Highlands CouncilNew Jersey Institute of TechnologyNew York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)Open Space InstitutePlaceWorksRalph E. Ogden FoundationRobert Sterling Clark FoundationRutgers UniversityShawangunk Valley ConservancyStavros Niarchos FoundationSuffolk CountyTwo Trees FoundationUpper Manhattan Empowerment ZoneVolvo Research and Education FoundationsWorld Bank This report was produced by Pierina Ana Sanchez , Director, New York, RPA Moses Gates , Director, Community Planning & Design, RPA Sarah Serpas , Associate Planner, Community Planning & Design, RPA Chris Jones , Senior Vice President & Chief Planner, RPA Vanessa Barrios , Associate Planner, Outreach, RPA Renae Widdison , Intern, RPA Wendy Pollack , Director, Public Affairs, RPA Emily Thenhaus , Communications Associate, RPA Ben Oldenburg , Senior Graphic Designer, RPAWe are enormously thankful to the people who gave us their time and shared their stories of displacement throughout the region. Quotes from these interviews are displayed throughout the report, and you can learn more in the appendix.We would also like to acknowledge the critical contribu-tions of our Fourth Regional Plan community partners who informed our research, and connected us with residents across the region. These partners continue to do the on-the-ground work preventing displacement and making sure people have safe and stable places to live. The Fourth Regional Plan has been made possible by the following sponsors:We thank all our donors for their generous support for our work.  Pushed Out | Regional Plan Association | March 2017  1 Executive Summary / 2 A Crisis of Affordability / 4 Addressing Inequality and Segregation /  5 Identifying Displacement Risk / 6 Economic Vulnerability / 7Neighborhood Accessibility / 8Recent Market Activity / 12Race and Ethnicity / 14 A Closer Look: Subregions and Displacement Risk /  15 New York City / 16Long Island / 20Hudson Valley / 22Northern New Jersey / 24Southwestern Connecticut / 26 The Path Forward / 28 Community Engagement /  31 Interviews / 32 Methodology /  36 Model / 37 Contents  Pushed Out | Regional Plan Association | March 2017 2 Over the past decades, New York City and much of the sur-rounding region has experienced a remarkable turnaround. Our robust transit system, walkable neighborhoods, reduced crime and diverse and international character have positioned New York City, and some other places in the region, as leaders of the recent urban renaissance.But this success has come at a price. Housing costs have skyrocketed even as wages have stagnated. Some outer borough neighborhoods that were once thought of as bas-tions of the working- and middle-class have seen a surge of wealthy residents. The idea that people can find a comfort-able place to put down community roots for the long term is increasingly precarious. The pressure on poorer residents to leave for more distant areas and make way for people who can afford more has seemingly moved from neighbor-hood to neighborhood with little slowdown, overcoming recessions, natural disasters, and concerted efforts from government and community organizations alike. There is a common thread in the areas experiencing these pressures: They are walkable areas with good access to jobs and public transit. And they also are the areas where the people most vulnerable to displacement are likely to live.The rising gap between housing costs and incomes can strain budgets and limit housing choices even for many middle-class individuals and families. This report focuses on the impact of rising rents and neighborhood change on low and moderate-income households. These residents not only have fewer choices when they are priced out of their homes, they are also more likely to live in the neighbor-hoods where the biggest changes are taking place. And the instability caused by displacement has a much bigger impact on the lives of people with few resources to adapt to the resulting financial, social and psychological disruption. RPA conducted a detailed analysis of not just New York City, but the entire metropolitan region, in order to deter-mine three things: 1. Where are residents vulnerable to displacement? 2. Where are the neighborhoods that are likely to experi-ence gentrification and displacement pressures in the future, and how do they overlap with the vulnerable populations? 3. Where are the areas currently seeing the kind of hous-ing market activity that can lead to price pressures and displacement?Our findings were supplemented with interviews with low- and moderate- income residents of the region in order to understand their current living conditions, experiences with displacement, and future housing hopes. Interviewees were reached through RPA’s fourth regional plan commu-nity engagement program. Key Findings Low and moderate-income residents are being replaced by wealthier populations in walkable neighborhoods with good access to jobs. From 2000 - 2015, households making more than $100,000 a year have grown by 160,000 in these accessible neigh-borhoods, while households making less than $100,000 have declined by 61,000 in these same neighborhoods 1 . Households making under $25,000 in particular are seeing a marked shift, growing by almost 50,000 households in the less accessible neighborhoods, while declining by over 10,000 households in the more accessible ones. This shift isn’t equal across the region, and is heavily driven by the increase of the wealthy population in walkable, job-accessi-ble neighborhoods in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and to a lesser extent Queens and New Jersey’s Hudson County. Despite this shift, most low and moderate-income residents still live in these walkable,  job-accessible neighborhoods. Over 95% of neighborhoods with high proportions of vul-nerable residents are also accessible areas. Out of the 2.1 million households in these neighborhoods at risk almost half of them, 990 thousand, are renters who earn less than $50,000 per year and are not living in public housing or other income-contingent housing. While some of these renters have other, weaker forms of rent protections, many will have little recourse against being pushed out if housing costs rise. 1  Neighborhoods are defined by census tracts in this analysis. Executive Summary
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