THE CURRENT STATE OF FLORIDA COLLEGE ACCESS AND SUCCESS. A report prepared for the Florida C.A.N.! Taskforce - PDF

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THE CURRENT STATE OF FLORIDA COLLEGE ACCESS AND SUCCESS A report prepared for the Florida C.A.N.! Taskforce FEBRUARY 2012 FLORIDA C.A.N.! TASKFORCE Julie Alexander, Associate Vice Chancellor for Learning
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THE CURRENT STATE OF FLORIDA COLLEGE ACCESS AND SUCCESS A report prepared for the Florida C.A.N.! Taskforce FEBRUARY 2012 FLORIDA C.A.N.! TASKFORCE Julie Alexander, Associate Vice Chancellor for Learning Initiatives Florida Department of Education, Division of Florida Colleges Stacy Carlson, Vice President and Program Director Helios Education Foundation Mary Chance, President Consortium of Florida Education Foundations Ann Coles, College Access Senior Fellow National College Access Network Braulio Colón, Executive Director Florida College Access Network Tanya Cooper, Director of State and Federal Initiatives Florida Department of Education Paul Dosal, Vice Provost for Student Success University of South Florida Paul Luna, President and CEO Helios Education Foundation Gene Marshall, Chairman of the Board NorthStar Bank Monoka Venters, Educational Policy Analyst State University System of Florida, Board of Governors Ralph Wilcox, Provost University of South Florida 2 THE CURRENT STATE OF FLORIDA COLLEGE ACCESS AND SUCCESS This document is the product of a request made by the Florida College Access Network (Florida C.A.N.!) Taskforce with the goal of capturing the college degree attainment needs of present and future Floridians. In doing so, indicators such as Florida s current and projected population growth, demographics, K-20 student attrition, adult degree attainment, as well as current and projected workforce demands were explored to give the taskforce information needed to make informed and well-researched decisions throughout the Florida C.A.N.! strategic planning process. The request by the Florida C.A.N.! Taskforce yielded four general trends related to higher education access and success, (1) Florida is one of the fastest growing states in the nation, (2) Florida s Black and Hispanic racial/ethnic groups, as well as students from low-income households, are increasing in significant numbers, (3) these groups have traditionally underperformed in a variety of academic indicators that are used to evaluate success within the state s education system and (4) that projections of college productivity show that the supply of degree earners will fall short of what Florida s future economy will demand of its workforce. Below are specific data points that reinforce these trends: POPULATION GROWTH Florida is currently the fourth most populated state in the nation behind California, Texas and New York. It is projected that as soon as 2015, Florida will pass New York as the third most populated state in the nation. Based on U.S. Census projections, Florida will gain 6.85 million residents from July 2011 to July 2025, which is the largest increase of any state during this time and accounts for over 18% of all the growth projected to take place in the United States during that span. Only Texas is projected to see more growth within its population of minors (ages 0-18) between the year 2000 and Minors within the state are projected to increase by 2.12 million (58.2%) during this span. Since , Florida has seen steady increases of its percentage of students from low-income families attending public schools, which currently stands at 53.5% (U.S. average, 45.9%). Between 2005 and 2025, the adult (ages 18-64) population of Black and Hispanic racial/ethnic groups in Florida is projected to increase more than all other racial/ ethnic groups combined. FLORIDA S EDUCATION PIPELINE Florida ranks 34 th among other states in the nation with progression of its ninth-graders through college completion. Out of 100 high school freshman, only 16 will earn a 2-year or 4-year degree within 150% of their normal program completion time. The high school graduation rate for Florida public schools is 68.8%, which is 44 th among other states and behind the national average of 75.5%. Black (55.7%) and Hispanic (63.9%) students are outperformed by all other racial/ethnic groups in the state. On college entrance exams, graduating high school seniors scored a 19.6 average composite score on the ACT and a 1447 average combined score on the SAT, which ranked 49 th and 46 th among other states in the nation. Six-year graduation rates vary among Florida s State University System (SUS) institutions. The University of Florida graduates 82% of its full-time, first-time-in-college students in six years while only 38% of Florida Atlantic University students graduate when given the same amount of time. ADULT DEGREE ATTAINMENT Just under 37% of the working-aged adult population (ages 25-64) in Florida has earned a 2-year or 4-year degree (U.S. average, 41%). Among working-aged adults, there are significant degree attainment gaps among Black (25%) and Hispanic (31.9%) racial/ethnic groups compared to White (40.7%) and Asian (55.6%) racial/ethnic groups in Florida. Over 2.1 million working-aged adults in Florida have some college credit but no degree. FUTURE WORKFORCE DEMAND It is projected that 59% of all jobs in Florida will require a postsecondary education by the year Based on current degree attainment rates, it is projected that Florida will need more than 1.6 million workers with postsecondary credentials to fill new and vacant jobs. 3 POPULATION GROWTH Florida is currently the fourth most populated state (19.05 million) in the nation behind California (37.69 million), Texas (25.67 million) and New York (19.46 million). Based on U.S. Census projections, Florida will gain 6.85 million residents from July 2011 to July 2025, which is the largest increase of any state during this time and accounts for nearly 20-percent of all growth projected to occur in America during this span. It is projected that as soon as July 2015, Florida will surpass New York as the third most populated state in the nation. Figure 1: Projected changes in population for all states: 2011 to ,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Over 18% of all growth in the United States from now until 2025 is projected to take place in Florida 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 FL CA TX AZ NC GA VA WA NV MD MI NJ MN TN OR IL UT CO WI MA SC MO NH ID AR IN LA KY CT RI AK MS ME DE VT NY HI OH PA KS MT OK NM AL SD NE WY ND IA WV DC -1,000,000 Source: Based on current U.S. Census population estimates and state population projections The projected increase of 6.85 million residents in Florida represents a 26.5-percent rise from its 2011 population, which is the third largest projected increase in the nation behind Arizona and Nevada. FLORIDA DEMOGRAPHICS As illustrated above, Florida s population will grow significantly in the years to come. This section of the report addresses the ways in which the population is expected to grow that are related to college access and degree completion. For example, it is widely known that the average age of Floridians tends to be above the national average, due to the number of retirees and older persons that migrate south. These trends are projected to continue into the future, but the number of young people in the state is also projected to increase. As shown in Figure 2, the number of persons in Florida under the age of 18 is projected to grow by 2.12 million (58.2-percent) from 2000 to Only Texas is projected to see more growth in its total population of minors during this span. Based on these projections, Florida will have 5.77 million people under the age of 18 living in its state in 2030, which will represent 20-percent of the total population. 4 Figure 2: Population pyramids of Florida, percent of total population: 2000 and 2030 Source: U.S. Census population pyramids and demographic summary indicators for states Another trend that warrants attention is the high number of students attending public schools in Florida who are considered low-income. This term is commonly used to describe students who come from low-income families, which is measured by participation in the federal government s free or reduced-price lunch program. As demonstrated above, challenges associate with serving students from low-income families will continue to compound as the number of these students in Florida s education system will only continue to grow. The percent of public school students who were eligible for free or reduced-price lunch in Florida was 53.5-percent in , which is above the nation s average of 45.9-percent. Only Texas and California have more students on the federal program that supports students from low-income families in the nation. Figure 3: Percent of students eligible for free or reduced-price lunch, Florida and U.S.: through % 55% 53.5% 50% 45% 44.0% 45.9% Florida 40% U.S. 35% 34.0% 30% 25% Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data 5 In addition to being a large and growing state, Florida is also one of the nation s most diverse. According to the U.S. Census, Florida is one of the few states in the country that has 3 racial/ethnic groups that each make up at least percent of the state s population. Figure 4: Map of most diverse states in the nation: 2009 Source: U.S. Census Projections of Florida s population show that the change in population varies between age and racial/ethnic groups. Figure 5 illustrates the changes projected to occur by the year 2025 by these two variables. Figure 5: Projected changes in Florida population by race/ethnicity: 2005 to 2025 Age Age Age Amer. Indian / Alaska Native (+9%) Asian / Pacific Islander (+65%) Hispanic (+89%) Black (+34%) White (+3%) Amer. Indian / Alaska Native (10%) Asian / Pacific Islander (+32%) Hispanic (+50%) Black (+20%) White (-4%) Amer. Indian / Alaska Native (-3%) Asian / Pacific Islander (+38%) Hispanic (+54%) Black (+13%) White (-10%) 1,113 48, , ,129 1,125 27, , , , ,122 34,466-81, , ,687 Source: NCHEMS, estimates calculated using data from U.S. Census Bureau 6 Florida s projected increase of Black and Hispanic racial/ethnic groups is important to degree attainment goals for the state. Nationwide, these are populations that are projected to increase their enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions. Figure 5 displays the projected increase of enrollment in postsecondary institutions by racial/ethnic group nationally. Figure 6: Projected enrollment increases by race/ethnicity in degree-granting postsecondary institutions in U.S.: 2008 through % 45% 45% 30% 30% 17% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hispanic American Indian / Alaska Native Black Asian / Pacific Islander Total 7% White Source: NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2019 FLORIDA S EDUCATION PIPELINE The data that has been outlined up to this point has shown that Florida will grow and become more and more diverse as time progresses. What will be described next is the performance of Florida s education pipeline, or how well Florida students navigate through its system of education. When examining potential education reforms for Floridians, it is important to capture the strengths and weaknesses that currently exist within its education system. The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) calculated for every state the progression and educational attainment from ninth grade to college completion which shows strengths and weaknesses at each stage of transition within the education pipeline. Florida was behind the national average of ninth graders who earned college degrees and ranked 34 th among all states. In 2008, the data shows 40-percent attrition of Florida s ninth graders before high school graduation and another 50-percent loss of its first-year college students before 150-percent of their program of study. These numbers represent a significant number of students who drop-out of their institutions and are not likely to earn a college degree. 7 Figure 7: Florida s education pipeline, ninth grade to college completion: Florida Nation 0 For every 100 Ninth Graders Graduate from High School Enter College Are Still Enrolled Graduate within Their Sophomore 150% Time Year Source: NCHEMS Information Center for Higher Education Policymaking and Analysis Freshman High School Graduation Rates The first indicator to be illustrated is freshman high school graduation rate, seen in Figure 7. The most current data available indicates that only 68.8-percent of public high school freshman graduate in four years, which is 44 th in the nation and far below the national graduation rate of 75.5-percent. The lowest performing state in the U.S. in the school year was Nevada, graduating 56.3-percent of its high school freshman, and the highest performing state was Wisconsin at 90.7-percent. Figure 8 shows Florida graduation rates by racial/ethnic group, which is only available for the school year. As shown by the data, there are disparities among students from Black and Hispanic racial/ethnic groups when compared to other racial/ethnic groups. College-going Rate for High School Graduates In total numbers, Florida sends the fourth most high school graduates directly to college than any other state in the nation. This translates to a college-going rate of 58.8-percent, which is 34 th among all other states and below the national average of 63.8-percent and can be seen in Figure 9. Raising this rate would make a significant difference in the total number of young people with the chance to attain a college degree. 8 Figure 8: Average freshman graduation rates for public high schools for Florida and U.S.: through % 75% 70% 71.7% 75.5% 68.8% 65% 60% 61.0% Florida U.S. 55% 50% Source: NCES, Common Core of Data State Dropout and Completion Data File Figure 9: Average freshman graduation rates for public high schools for Florida by ethnicity: % 90% 91.4% 80% 70% 60% 74.9% 70.3% 70.1% 66.9% 63.9% 50% 55.7% 40% 30% Asian / Pacific Islander U.S. Average American Indian / Alaska Native White State Average Hispanic Black Source: NCES, Common Core of Data State Dropout and Completion Data File 9 Figure 10: Estimated rate of high school graduates going to college, selected states: % 75% 77.4% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 58.8% 63.8% 45% 40% 45.7% Lowest state (AK) Florida U.S. Highest state (MS) Source: NCES, Common Core of Data State Dropout and Completion Data File Performance on Standardized College Admissions Exams As a state, Florida does not have a mandated college admissions exam required for entrance in the state s university system. Colleges and universities in Florida that require a standardized exam score as an admissions requirement typically accept either the SAT or ACT. Graduating high school seniors in Florida performed near the bottom of all states in the nation on both exams. Florida s graduating high school seniors scored an average 19.6 composite score on the ACT in 2011, which was the 4 th lowest of all states. The lowest performing state was Mississippi (18.7) while the highest, Massachusetts, had an average score of The national average, as well as performance of all other states can be seen on Figure 9. The ACT breaks down their scores by ethnicity, which can be seen on Figure 10. Students from Black and Hispanic racial/ethnic groups have consistently performed lower than the state s average over the last five years. On SAT exam performance in 2011, graduating high school seniors scored a 1447 combined score, which was 6 th lowest among the United States is shown in Figure 11. Florida ranked below the national average in each of the SAT subject tests in Florida college-bound seniors had a mean score of 487 in critical reading (44 th of all states, national average = 497), 489 in math (48 th of all states, national average = 514), and 471 in writing (46 th of all states, national average = 471) for a combined score of 1447 (46 th of all states, national average = 1500). Figure 12 shows SAT subject test scores by ethnicity in Figure 11: Performance on ACT composite score by state: MA CT NH NY ME NJ RI MN WA VT DE IN IA PA VA WI CA MD MT NE KS NC OH SD UT ID MO OR NV HI AK U.S. IL TX CO ND OK GA WV AL WY LA SC DC MI AR NM AZ FL KY TN MS Source: ACT, Inc., Data for the Class of 2011 Figure 12: Performance on ACT by racial/ethnic group in Florida: 2007 through State Average Black/African American American Indian/Alaska Native White Hispanic/Latino Asian Source: ACT Profile Report, Graduating Class of 2011, Florida 11 Figure 13: Performance on SAT combined score by state: IL MN IA WI MO MI ND KS NE SD KY TN CO AR WY OK UT MS LA AL NM OH ID MT WA NH MA OR AZ VT CT VA AK CA WV NJ U.S. MD RI NC PA IN NV NY DE HI FL TX GA SC ME DC Source: College Board State Profile Report 2011, Florida Figure 14: Performance on SAT subject tests by racial/ethnic group in Florida: Critical Reading Math Writing 300 American Indian or Alaska Native Asian, Asian Amer, or Pacific Islndr Black or African American Mexican or Mexican American Puerto Rican Hispanic, Latino, or Latin American White State Average Source: College Board State Profile Report 2011, Florida 12 College Graduation Rates Florida has eleven state public universities that belong to the State University System (SUS). Figure 15 illustrates the 6-year graduation rates for all full-time, first-time in college students seeking degrees for the last available Common Data Set. There is a wide range of performance within Florida s public universities, with the University of Florida graduating 82-percent of its students and Florida International University graduating only 38-percent in 6- years. The average 6-year graduation rate for all SUS students was 59.8-percent. The University of Florida leads all universities in the aggregate family income of its students ($103,663) and is well above the average of the ten other public universities, which is $66,410 according to 2008 IRS data. The University of Florida is one of the largest in the country and accounted for over one-third of all graduates for the 2003 cohort of students that attended an SUS institution. Figure 16 shows how graduation rates at SUS institutions have changed since There is no consistent, state-wide trend that can be observed when looking at overall or within institution data. Figures 16 through 20 indicate data collected from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) for graduation rates for students attending 4-year and 2-year degree granting institutions within the state. The performance of our students is compared nationally, by racial/ethnic group, and by control of institution. Florida students tend to outperform national averages at 2-year institutions and tend to perform right at, or below national averages at 4-year institutions. Figure 15: Six-year graduation rates for students attending Florida State University System institutions with family s aggregate household income 100% $120,000 90% 82% $100,000 80% 70% 60% 71% 63% 60% $80,000 $60,000 50% 40% 49% 48% 46% 45% 45% 39% 38% $40,000 30% $20,000 20% UF FSU UCF NCF UNF USF FIU FGCU UWF FAMU FAU $0 Source: SUS figures are from most recent Common Data Sets (11/2011) and IRS data from 2008 income tax returns 13 Figure 16: Undergraduate 6-year graduation rates for FTIC cohorts by SUS institution: % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% UF FSU NCF UCF UNF USF FGCU UWF FAU FIU FAMU Source: Florida State University System of Florida Board of Governors Annual Report Figure 17: Percentage of students graduating with a bachelor s degree within 6 years of entry from the degreegranting institutions where the students started as full-time, first-time students by racial/ethnic group: Cohort year 1998 and % 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% U.S. Florida U.S. Florida Total White Black Hispanic Asian / Pacific Islander American Indian / Alaska Native Source: United States Education Dashboard, IPEDS 14 Figure 18: Percentage of students graduating with a bachelor s degree within 6 years of entry from the degreegranting institutions where the students started as full-time, first-time students by control of institution: Cohort year 1998 and % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Total Public Private not-forprofit Private for profit 0% U.S. Florida
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