Final Aids Model 2

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  A Predictive Model on the Spreadof the HIV Virus in Cebu City By Jose D. Velez, Jr. Abstract: Among Philippine cities, Manila made It for several years to the U list of cities !ith high incidence of  IV infections. #ately, ho!ever, $e%& $ity o&tran'ed Manila. (ith the U goal to end the AID)epidemic %y *++, $e%& $ity-s case is alarming. he pro%lem needs immediate attention. (itho&t anyform of intervention, the infection rate is %o&nd to rise f&rther. o sim&late !hat !o&ld %e the AID)scenario sans any intervention, a predictive model on the spread of the IV vir&s is made &sing datafrom the University of the Philippines Pop&lation Instit&te. In *+/+, the University of the Philippinescame &p !ith a comparative st&dy on the lifestyle and health of call center agents in Metro Manila andMetro $e%&. Among the data gathered !ere those of ris'y lifestyle of BP0 agents in $e%& that co&ldma'e them v&lnera%le to infection. his paper designs a predictive model on the spread of the IVvir&s %y the year *+*+ to ill&strate the pro%a%le e1tent of infection if the trend contin&es. Keywords: $e%& $ity, BP0, Philippines, UAID) I. I! #$%C!I#  he Joint United ations Programme on IV and AID) 2UAID)3, the U %ody tas'edto ma1imize res&lts for the glo%al AID) response hopes to end the AIDs epidemic %ythe year *++. D&%%ed 4ast rac' *++, UAID) foc&ses its campaigns in di5erentcities thro&gho&t the !orld. he reason for this is the o%servation that 6t!o of themost dramatic events the past t!o decades have converged in cities7 theastonishing gro!th of cities themselves ... and the glo%al AID) epidemic8 2UAID),*+/93. Manila in the Philippines made it to the list of cities %eing monitored %y theglo%al %ody since for several years no!: it is the Philippine city !ith the mostn&m%er of IV infections. o!ever, in J&ne *+/;, the Department of ealth 2D0 3  <egion = reported that $e%& $ity, the Philippines- second most prospero&s city haso&tran'ed Manila. (hile cities s&ch as Bang'o', e! >or', Paris and Vanco&ver have s&ccessf&llyred&ced IV transmissions 2UAID), *+/93 $e%&-s IV infection has %eenaccelerating. According to the D0 <eport, $e%& $ity ran's ?rst among Philippinecities !ith high incidence of IV cases. It has a prevalence rate of =.=@, ahead of Manila and &ezon $ity !hich recorded .=@ and .@, respectively. $entralVisayas, to !hich $e%& %elongs, ran's second ne1t to the ational capital <egion2$<3 !ith the most n&m%er of persons living !ith IV. In $entral Visayas, $e%&leads the provinces !ith = people con?rmed to %e !ith AID) and /C=* othersinfected %y IV. his paper e1plores the implication of said report foc&sing mainlyon !or'ers of B&siness Process 0&tso&rcing 2BP03 ind&stries in $e%& !hoselifestyles are considered to %e high ris' factors in the spread of the IV vir&s.0f great help to this paper is a comparative st&dy made %y the University of thePhilippines Pop&lation Instit&te in *+/+ titled, 6#ifestyle, ealth )tat&s and Behaviorof >o&ng (or'ers in $all $enters and 0ther Ind&stries7 Metro Manila and Metro$e%&. he said st&dy doc&mented the lifestyle, health, se1&al practices, anda!areness of the AID) disease, among others of BP0 !or'ers in Metro Manila andMetro $e%&. Data on $e%& call center agents gathered %y researches of the saidst&dy !ere singled o&t and tapped to ma'e the sim&lation. hey shed light on thec&rrent highris' lifestyle and %ehavior of call center agents !hich ma'e themv&lnera%le to IV infection.  he history of the AID) epidemic reveals some important facts regarding the spreadof the disease !hich can %e &sef&l in addressing the $e%& IV and AID) sit&ation.<is'y lifestyle s&ch as having m&ltiple se1&al partners is among the identi?a%lefactors that can lead to the spread of the vir&s according to a st&dy %y Andersonand Dahl%erg 2/EE*3. In a s&rvey involving Americans titled, ighris' )e1&alBehavior in the Feneral Pop&lation 2<es&lts from a ational )&rvey, /ECC/EE+3, ithas %een fo&nd o&t that 6a large n&m%er of ad&lts in the United states are at a ris'of acG&iring an )D %eca&se of their reported se1&al %ehavior. In an estimated /C+million persons in the U) !ho are /C years of age and older, 6 !e estimate that 9.C  million have had ; or more se1&al partner in the past yearH and . million havehad se1 !ith a strangerH igher n&m%er of se1&al partners, %oth recently andtotally, is associated !ith increased ris' for a n&m%er of %acterial infections H Italso poses a greater c&m&lative ris' for acG&iring viral infections, s&ch as generalherpes, h&man papillomavir&s, hepatitis B and IVH8 2Anderson and Dahl%erg,/EE*3.(ith the recent report of D0 = placing $e%& in the ?rst place among cities !ithhigh IV infections, it is pressing to assess once again the ris's factors involving thegeneral pop&lation, foc&sing this time on the pro%a%le spread of the IV vir&samong BP0 !or'ers. BP0 !or'ers are of concern to this st&dy as most of themshare a common high ris' lifestyle and are prone to get infected %y the vir&s. oe1plore the pro%a%le spread of the disease, and to %ring attention to the AID)sit&ation in $e%&, this st&dy comes &p !ith a predictive agent%ased model &singthe data from the UP st&dy. his paper presents !hat the AID) and IV scenario !ill%e among call center agents In $e%& %y the year *+*+. &. ASS%MP!I#S CC men and =* !omen from vario&s BP0 companies agreed to %e made therespondents in the UP st&dy 2UP Pop&lation Instit&te, *++E3. o!ever, the responserate varies and is lo! for some G&estions.  he sim&lation in this st&dy relies on the follo!ing ass&mptions !hich arethemselves %ased on the data gathered %y the UP st&dy. '.(. Se)ual *ehavior /+ call center agents in $e%& !ho are less than ; years old !ere s&rveyed in*++E and as'ed on their se1&al practices the past /* months prior to the s&rvey. CCmen and =* !omen !ere made the respondents. Based on the UP st&dy, thefollo!ing ass&mptions can %e made7   Male call center agents tend to engage more in ris'y se1&al %ehavior comparedto their female co&nterparts. he UP st&dy revealed that men have a highermean n&m%er of se1&al partners at .= !hile !omen only have a /.* meann&m%er of se1&al partners. ogether they have a mean of *. se1&al partners i.e. se1&al partners.  Males too engage more in samese1 se1&al e1perience at /;@ as compared to!omen !ho merely have a . @ engagement. More males also engage incommercial se1 at /=.;@ as compared to + %y females.   )ince the s&rvey covered /* months of se1&al activity %y the respondents, then&m%er of !ee's in a /*month period !as divided %y the n&m%er of se1&alpartners. he res&lting ?g&re constit&te the average commitment period of therespondents or the n&m%er of !ee's the se1&al activity !o&ld last. '.&. Protection In the same st&dy made %y UP, a s&rvey on &se of condoms among call centeragents d&ring their last cas&al se1 !as also cond&cted.  call center agents,involving ; males and /+ females responded to the G&estions.Based on the UP st&dy, the follo!ing ass&mption can %e made7  Male call center agents since they engage more in se1&al activity have a slightlyhigher condom &se !ith 9/.;@ of the male respondents admitting they haveengaged in protected se1. 9+@ of the female respondents said they too, engagein the practice. ogether they constit&te 9/.@ of the total n&m%er of respondents !ho engage in safe se1. '.' Aids !est In the same st&dy, a s&rvey of *E call center agents, involving *+ males and Efemales on !hether they have ta'en an AID) test !as cond&cted.
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